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STORMcast Discussion 2017-03

Issued: 10Jan17

Time:  1300 EST  

The STORMcasts shown here are intended for the students of UDHS's AGS and AES geoscience programs and are for educational/informational purposes only.  They frequently combine scientific concepts along with a sense of humor that often pokes fun at our behavior during weather events.  While intended to be informative, the STORMcasts should never be used to make life and death decisions during severe weather events.  Follow the appropriate bulletins posted by the National Weather Service and local media outlets for appropriate actions during these events.


Current National Weather Service advisory map as of STORMcast issuance...

For central and northern PA and NJ from 6 PM to as late as 2 AM depending on location.  Light wintry mix of snow changing to ice.  Hazardous driving conditions possible.

For a light accumulating snow for most of the forecast area overnight tonight. 

(Map courtesy of NWS)

Hi everybody.  It's a very busy time for me right now since my meteo. students have started their two week long forecasting final exam so, at the moment, I could probably tell you more about the weather in Milwaukee (our forecast city) than Philly but we've got a Winter Advisory Advisory posted so here's quick sense for what is going to happen.

To our west, we've got an intensifying low pressure system that will be bringing some more light precipitation to the region by tonight.  However, this same system will also pump huge amounts of warm air into the area.  In fact, our temperatures will continue to rise slow and steady for at least the next 48 hours with barely a drop off during the overnight hours.  By Thursday, most of teh 'burbs will top out between 55F and 60F so this is quite a surge.  The only potential  complication is tonight.

Low pressure in Canada will draw significant amounts of warm air into it from the south moderating our temperatures through Thursday. Image: PSU
Timing is everything with this warm air and unfortunately for much of the state's interior and at higher elevations, the precipitation will arrive first before temperatures can rise above freezing so much of the region will see a bit of snow and ice before everyone transitions over to rain.  There is concern for some freezing rain and sleet to the NW of Philly which is the main reason the WWA has been posted.  The snow will honestly not be the issue.  Philly, DE and south NJ should already be moving above freezing.  My own station in MontCo is hovering around 32F right now and will continue to rise long before precipitation starts so there is minimal threat of ice overnight tonight. 

If you're out and about tonight, ust exercise some caution at the outset of precipitation which will probably occur around the 8PM-11PM time frame.  Remember, just because the air temperature is above freezing does not mean the ground is so again, freezing rain is a concern for awhile tonight.  I expect no issue by tomorrow morning except perhaps way upstate.






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